STL Partners Research Frames Satellite D2D as Strategic Telco Control-Point Battle

STL Partners has published two new reports by analyst Dean Bubley examining the evolution of satellite direct-to-device (D2D) services and the implications of Starlink Mobile for telecom operators.

Satellite D2D: Down-to-Earth scenarios for telcos, argues that satellite-to-phone has moved beyond early emergency messaging and isolated technical demonstrations. In 2026, the market now includes commercial data services, new constellation filings, policy activity, spectrum plans, M&A and a growing focus on sovereignty and resilience.

According to STL Partners’ Skywatch Tracker, there are now 214 telco-satellite partnerships, including 37 commercial D2D launches. These include services built around Starlink, Skylo and Chinese operators, with commercial data offerings now available across North America, Europe, China, Japan, Australasia, Ukraine and parts of Africa and the Pacific.

The report warns operators not to view D2D through a simplistic “satellite replaces mobile” lens. Instead, it highlights strategic control points such as spectrum, eSIM, customer ownership, wholesale models, MVNO arrangements, regulation, resilience and national sovereignty. It also points to practical constraints, including indoor coverage limitations and the need to integrate satellite services into enterprise, IoT, private 5G and cloud environments.

The second report, Does the SpaceX IPO and Starlink Mobile change everything?, focuses specifically on SpaceX and Starlink Mobile. It argues that SpaceX has become a central force in satellite connectivity, with its IPO, bond issuance, spectrum ambitions, Starship programme and potential terrestrial mobile plans changing the strategic conversation around D2D.

However, the report preaches caution on claims that Starlink Mobile will automatically become a full-scale rival to terrestrial mobile operators. Key uncertainties include Starlink’s access to sufficient spectrum, the depth of any terrestrial build-out, its ability to secure MVNO, roaming or spectrum-leasing deals, national licensing approvals, indoor coverage constraints and the real level of user demand and willingness to pay.

The analysis concludes that Starlink is likely to become an important player in supplementary coverage, backup and resilience services across many markets. Whether it can become a direct strategic challenger to mainstream mobile operators is less clear, particularly given resistance from MNOs in the US and concerns from governments internationally.

Download both reports here: https://stlpartners.com/research/