30m D2C Connections in China by 2030 - ABI
China is moving quickly to expand its non-terrestrial network (NTN) and direct-to-consumer (D2C) satellite services, underpinned by government policy, private investment, and new space technologies. According to ABI Research, the country’s serviceable addressable market for satellite D2C subscriptions could reach 30 million users by 2030, fueled by major low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation projects.
Two state-backed mega-constellations, Spacesail and Guowang, are already deploying satellites, with Honghu-3 expected to follow. Together, they could contribute a significant share of the more than 48,000 satellites forecast to be in orbit globally by 2032.
These efforts sit at the intersection of several national initiatives—including the Space Silk Road, the New Infrastructure Policy, and the Space-Ground Integrated Information Network Plan—that position satellite connectivity as a strategic technology for both domestic resilience and global reach.
With China’s huge base of smartphone users and expanding IoT deployments, satellite-to-device services promise added reliability during outages, disasters, or in regions where terrestrial coverage falls short. However, ABI notes that the commercial opportunity will remain concentrated among local players like Spacesail, Guowang, and Honghu-3, with the market staying largely closed to foreign competitors for security and regulatory reasons.
The report suggests rising competition, investment, and collaboration across China’s space sector as these mega-constellations take shape, helping to push satellite connectivity from niche to mainstream.
The findings are taken from ABI Research's China's Space Market and NTN Frontier: Company Profiles & Market Insights report.