100m More D2C Users by 2031 Says Juniper Research
The number of people actively using direct-to-cell (D2C) satellite services each month is expected to grow from 17.4 million in 2026 to more than 133 million by 2031, according to new forecasts from Juniper Research.
The projected growth is being driven by a wave of new operator launches and the emergence of additional satellite providers entering the market, including players such as AST SpaceMobile. As more networks become commercially available, direct-to-device connectivity is expected to become accessible to a much larger share of mobile subscribers worldwide.
Despite the strong growth outlook, the report suggests adoption may not be as rapid as some industry expectations. The researchers argue that many of the connectivity challenges consumers face occur in dense urban environments or inside buildings, where current satellite-to-smartphone services offer limited benefits. Instead, demand is likely to remain concentrated around rural, remote and outdoor use cases where terrestrial coverage is unavailable.
This aligns with how many operators are currently positioning D2C services as a coverage extension layer rather than a replacement for conventional mobile networks. Applications such as hiking, maritime travel, remote working and emergency communications continue to be among the strongest drivers of usage.
The report also suggests operators could stimulate adoption through more flexible pricing models, such as temporary or seasonal access passes, rather than relying solely on permanent service bundles.
While the forecast points to substantial market growth, it also highlights an important reality for the sector. The challenge facing D2C providers is no longer proving that the technology works; it is finding the everyday use cases that will turn satellite connectivity from an occasional safety net into a service that consumers regularly use.